On April 27, NAFMII held the Q1 2012 Analysis on Financial Market Operation Seminar..22 financial institutions, including Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of Communications, attended the meeting. Experts present at the meeting discussed in depth on topics such as the movements in the international economic and financial atmosphere, macroeconomic trend and prospect, financial market operation, private lending and financial reform in Q1, 2012.

According to experts present at the meeting, internationally, major countries in the world will see general election in 2012, and the political cycle will deliver far-reaching influences on economic operation; the American economy is slowly recovering, inflation is well controlled, but industrial output, the real estate industry, the unemployment rate and other real economic indicators still fail to meet expectations; and in Europe, the debt crisis has mitigated to some extent, but there are signs evident for economic depression, and Spain, Portugal and other countries are still facing the danger of another economic downturn. China’s export will still come under pressure, considering the slow recovery of the American economy and the European debt crisis as a long-term issue.

Domestically, data on the credit structure in Q1 show that the medium-and-long-term loans of the Chinese enterprises dropped considerably, indicating the liquidity reduction has influenced investment demand of the enterprises to some extent; the phenomenon of deposit concentration on certain time points was obvious, and the wealth management products and deposits of commercial banks shifted in the two-way direction, which has impacted the liquidity; commercial banks should not be simply blamed for their rapid profit expansion, but the negative influence of the NPL ratio rise during the economic growth slowdown on the commercial banks should also be considered; and private lending has its advantages, but some of the activities gradually evolve into financial frauds, which must be handled according to the law. The experts all thought that China is now staying at a preliminary stage of a new round of system change and reform, which has influenced the economic growth rate to some extent, but will also lay a solid foundation for steady rapid development at next stage.